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This last cause has since gotten a deservedly bad rap. But the intent was to improve the world, and the same could be said of Fisher’s post-TB economics. Fisher became what his mentor William Graham Sumner would have mocked as a “social doctor,” but he never strayed far from the bounds of neoclassical theory. His work on monetary policy led him to spend decades educating Americans about inflation and deflation and promoting government policies to keep prices stable. His take on the stock market exhibited a similar spirit.

This spirit was evident in The Nature of Capital and Income, the book Fisher lost at Grand Central in 1905 and rewrote in 1906. He kept it almost equation free to appeal to a broad readership, but his mathematical sensibility still permeated it. “If we take the history of the prices of stocks and bonds,” Fisher wrote, “we shall find it chiefly to consist of a record of changing estimates of futurity, due to what is called chance.” This was similar to Bachelier’s depiction of Brownian motion at the Paris exchange. A half century later the concept was dubbed the random walk hypothesis, occasioning all manner of academic excitement. But the experiences of the previous decade had turned Fisher into enough of a realist that he immediately backpedaled from his bold statement. Stock and bond price movements weren’t entirely random, he continued:

Were it true that each individual speculator made up his mind independently of every other as to the future course of events, the errors of some would probably be offset by those of others. But, as a matter of fact, the mistakes of the common herd are usually inthe same direction. Like sheep, they all follow a single leader.

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This assumption that people could see clearly into the future was crucial to making equilibrium economics work. It was also crucially problematic. “You regard men as infinitely selfish and infinitely farsighted,” Henri Poincaré wrote to mathematical economist Léon Walras in 1901. Infinite selfishness “may perhaps be admitted in a first approximation,” Poincaré allowed. But the assumption of infinite farsightedness “may call for some reservations.”

The events that followed the publication of Fisher’s gold standard argument were a textbook demonstration of the limits to foresight. Gold discoveries in Alaska and South Africa, coupled with the development of a new process for separating gold from ore, set the world on a decades-long inflationary path that no one had foreseen. The way people dealt with rising prices or, more to the point, failed to deal with them convinced Fisher that Bryan had been on to something in 1896.

In the midst of this reexamination, in 1898, a dire personal crisis arose for Fisher: the onset of tuberculosis, the same disease that had killed his father fourteen years before. Only after three years spent in clinics in Southern California, upstate New York, and Colorado Springs and three more operating at half speed back in New Haven did the young professor recover. He came away from the experience with an obsession for good health and a near-messianic fervor to better the world before his death. Fisher became a leading prohibitionist, coauthor of a bestselling hygiene textbook, a disciple of the corn flakes prescribing Dr. Kellogg of Battle Creek, an early backer of the League of Nations, and a prominent advocate of eugenics.